Tensions in the Middle East may be easing, and the Trump administration is reportedly considering delaying tariffs initially set for July 8-9, adding to a shifting macro backdrop. The most notable change, however, comes from the Federal Reserve, with Chairman Jerome Powell signaling a more dovish stance and hinting at possible rate cuts if inflation continues to drop. This, alongside weaker economic data, has led to lower bond yields and a declining DXY—conditions that historically increase global liquidity and support crypto markets, though with a time lag. Concurrently, crypto faces a wave of bullish catalysts, including the upcoming tradability of the WLFI token, a possible SEC exemptive order that could temporarily legalize most crypto activity in the U.S., and progress in Congress on the GENIUS and CLARITY Acts. While short-term volatility may persist due to geopolitical and trade uncertainties, the medium-term outlook for crypto appears increasingly optimistic.

Crypto, especially Bitcoin, appears to be decoupling from traditional assets, with prices rising even as stocks and bonds fall. Upcoming macro data—revised Q1 GDP and PCE inflation—could reveal a “Goldilocks” scenario of steady growth and falling inflation, potentially fueling a market rally. Despite rising yields and Fed tightening, historical precedent and ongoing fiscal stimulus suggest that markets, including crypto, could continue to climb, with Bitcoin possibly acting as a leading indicator of liquidity.